China Index Academy released: 2017 real estate enters an adjustment stage_Jiangsu Nantong Liujian Construction Group Co., Ltd. | Architecture

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China Index Academy released: 2017 real estate enters an adjustment stage

On January 4, 2017, the first China Real Estate Big Data Annual Conference was held in Chongming Island, Shanghai. At the meeting, China Index Research Institute released the "China Real Estate Market 2016 Summary and 2017 Trend Outlook", based on a comprehensive real estate big data system, summarized the market situation in 2016, and made predictions on the industry development in 2017. Provide reference and reference for all sectors of society.

In 2016, the real estate market ushered in the high point of the current cycle, the annual transaction volume hit a record high, and the urban differentiation continued. Around the National Day, local governments intensively introduced control policies, and the market trend gradually stabilized in the fourth quarter.

In terms of policies, the policy environment has become tighter, and the city has implemented policies to strictly control market risks. In 2016, the real estate policy went through a process from looseness to continuous tightening in hotspot cities: the "two sessions" proposed to implement policies to destock according to cities, but with the rapid rise of housing prices and land prices in hotspot cities, policy differentiation has further emerged. On the one hand, the regulation and control policies of hotspot cities have been continuously tightened, purchase and loan restrictions and various regulatory measures have been frequently increased to curb investment speculative demand and prevent market risks; on the other hand, third- and fourth-tier cities still adhere to the destocking strategy, focusing on supply and demand. Improve the market environment at the end. At the same time, the central government has strengthened the construction of a long-term real estate mechanism, and continued to make breakthroughs in regional integration and new urbanization, actively building a good environment for the long-term development of the industry.

In terms of prices, housing prices in hot cities have increased significantly, and prices have stabilized after tightening controls. Affected by the loose monetary environment, temporary tight supply and demand, and rising land prices, housing prices in hot cities have risen rapidly, with residential prices in Baicheng rising by 17.83% from January to November. After the intensive introduction of multi-city control policies in the fourth quarter, the price increase of new homes and second-hand homes in hot cities fell.

In terms of transactions, the market transactions run at a high level throughout the year, and the transaction structure has moved up significantly. In 2016, various types of demand continued to be released, real estate transactions were running at a high level, and the transaction volume of commercial housing in 50 representative cities increased by more than 20% year-on-year, and the absolute volume hit a record high in the same period. Before and after the National Day, the hot-spot city control policies were intensively promulgated, which means that the city's market popularity has begun to fall, and the volume of transactions in the fourth quarter has been reduced. From the perspective of transaction structure, the total price of products at all levels in core first- and second-tier cities has increased significantly, and the demand for improvement in hotspot cities has also been actively released. The transaction structure has moved upward, and the proportion of large-scale transactions has increased.

In terms of land, the first- and second-tier land markets are hot, and high-priced land development involves risks. In 2016, the supply and demand of the land market in 300 cities was still in a downward trend. The launch of various types of land fell by 11.0% year-on-year, and the transaction volume fell by 5.7% year-on-year. However, the hot-spot urban land market continued to be hot, driving up the overall average residential floor price and premium rate across the country. The transactional floor prices of various types of land in 300 cities across the country increased by 38.7% year-on-year; the average premium rate was 43.13%, an increase from 2015 26.91 percentage points. It is worth noting that in 2016, the sales of real estate companies rebounded and the loose funding environment, companies were enthusiastic about acquiring land, and high-priced land in key first- and second-tier cities appeared frequently, especially in cities such as Hefei, Suzhou, Nanjing, and Shanghai. The future market trend is very worthwhile attention.

In terms of enterprises, the market share of tens of billions of real estate companies rose to 50%, and industry integration accelerated. In 2016, the sales performance of branded real estate companies reached a new high. Ten billion real estate companies expanded to 131, the market share rose to 50%, and the sales of Evergrande, Vanke and Country Garden exceeded 300 billion yuan, starting the large-scale development of real estate companies. New Era. With the support of good sales performance, the company has abundant cash flow and strong willingness to acquire land. In 2016, the industry structure is also undergoing profound changes. Central enterprises and state-owned enterprises have accelerated their integration and reorganization, and the process of capital integration of real estate enterprises has accelerated. 2. 2017 China's real estate market trend outlook

In 2017, due to urban policies will continue to deepen under the tone of controlling risks and destocking, hot cities are facing a decline in volume and price, and third- and fourth-tier cities are expected to continue to stabilize.

According to the analysis of "China's real estate industry's medium and long-term development dynamic model", it is expected that in 2017, the national real estate market will show the characteristics of "sales volume and price correction, new construction starts slightly decline, and investment grows slowly". In terms of demand, 2017 is the end of this round of real estate cycle. The sales area of ​​commercial housing will be affected by the policy and monetary environment, and there will be a callback. The annual decline is expected to reach 12.8% to 14.8%. Among them, the sales area of ​​first-tier and second-tier cities will show a decline. , The decline in the second-tier cities was more significant, and the market fluctuations in the third- and fourth-tier cities were flat. On the supply side, given the decline in sales in first- and second-tier cities, the willingness to start new construction is also insufficient, and the low land transaction in the previous period will cause a slight decline in new construction across the country. The annual decline is expected to be within 3.0%. However, it is expected that in 2017, companies will increase their willingness to cover their positions, and land acquisition will increase, which will promote investment growth. We estimate that the growth rate of real estate investment is between 2.5% and 4.5%. In terms of prices, the demand correction has caused prices to fall, and the annual decline is expected to be between 1.9% and 3.9%.

In 2017, our overall judgment on the market in first- and second-tier cities is that volume and price have entered the adjustment stage, but there are still market opportunities in different cities. First-tier cities have entered the era of stock housing, and the market space for new housing development and construction is constantly being compressed. The revitalization of stock land and stock properties brought about by urban industrial upgrading will be the theme of the future, and the rental market is also expected to become a new opportunity for the industry. The housing price space in the second-tier overheated cities has been overdrawn, and the “quantity and price callback” has become a high probability event, but cities with industry and population support will become the next new outlet for development. Tianjin, Wuhan and Zhengzhou benefit from the development of urban agglomerations, and the city potential is gradually It appears that volume and price have entered a steady growth cycle; the development of western node cities is expected to enter a new stage, and housing prices are still relatively low-lying areas, such as Chongqing, Chengdu, Xi'an and other cities. In addition, small cities located around large cities or third- and fourth-tier cities with significant industrial advantages still have potential for the development of the real estate market.

 

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